Green Methanol Expected to Fuel Zero-Carbon Shipping by 2027, Says ZEMBA Report

The Zero Emission Maritime Buyers Alliance (ZEMBA), a coalition of leading container shippers committed to carbon-free ocean freight, projects that by 2027, the market will have enough green methanol and methanol-capable ships to launch zero-emission shipping services.
In a newly-released report developed with Lloyd’s Register (LR), ZEMBA highlights findings from a recent survey of e-fuel producers and shipping lines. According to the report, ZEMBA aims to issue a new tender for e-fuel-powered shipping in 2025, targeting the procurement of 3.5 billion TEU-nautical miles of zero-carbon shipping over the next three years. While the survey confirmed sufficient fuel and vessels to meet this goal, it did not address cost projections.
Fuel availability forecasts suggest that by 2027, there will be approximately 390,000 tonnes of heavy fuel oil equivalent of green methanol, increasing to over one million tonnes by 2030. However, competition for methanol from other sectors, such as plastics manufacturing, remains a challenge. ZEMBA notes that nearly 80 percent of this fuel supply is expected to come from maritime-focused producers.
ZEMBA’s tender process is designed to create a sustainable market for zero-carbon fuels and accelerate adoption across the shipping industry. To qualify, shipping companies must provide at least 1.15 billion TEU-nautical miles per year using fuels that reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 90 percent, alongside rigorous emissions certification and lifecycle assessments.
The alliance’s first tender, held in April 2024, was awarded to Hapag-Lloyd, which will help ZEMBA members avoid 82,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions in 2025-26 using biomethane. The first large-scale supplies of e-methanol are anticipated to hit the market by 2027-28.
“Rapid deployment of hydrogen-derived e-fuels this decade is essential to keeping the maritime industry on track for full decarbonization by 2050,” said ZEMBA President and CEO Ingrid Irigoyen. “Each of our tenders aims to unlock new, scalable solutions to push the industry forward.”
The report also revealed that e-methane (e-LNG) projects are still in early stages, with no significant progress expected before 2030. Similarly, e-ammonia is projected to be delayed, with ammonia-capable container ships not expected until at least 2027.
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