Record Growth in Containership Fleet Capacity, BIMCO Reports

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The global containership fleet has seen an unprecedented surge in capacity, adding 1.6 million TEU since the beginning of the year, with a remarkable 11% year-over-year increase to 29.5 million TEU. This marks the fastest growth in 15 years, as reported by Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.

In just the first half of 2024, a record-breaking 264 new ships with a combined capacity of 1.6 million TEU were delivered. This figure is two-thirds more than during the same period last year, which previously held the record.

Despite the record capacity increase, high demand for ships and robust cargo volume growth, along with rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, have kept ship recycling at low levels, with only 36 ships recycled, totaling 51k TEU capacity.

“Even with these record figures, shipowners are continuing to place orders for new ships,” said Rasmussen. Year-to-date, a total of 63 ships with a combined capacity of 0.4 million TEU have been ordered, keeping the order book-to-fleet ratio high at 19%.

The current order book already includes deliveries scheduled for 2028, with an average of 1.5 million TEU set for delivery each year between 2025 and 2027.

BIMCO also highlights that the 12k-17k TEU ship segment has experienced the fastest growth, now making up 22% of the container fleet. This segment’s capacity grew 25% year-over-year in the first half of 2024, contributing nearly 50% to the overall fleet’s growth. It was the main growth driver in 2022 and 2023 and is expected to continue dominating future growth, accounting for over 50% of the capacity on order.

This trend marks a shift from 2015-2021, when ships larger than 17k TEU were the main growth drivers. Now, these larger ships make up only 17% of the order book capacity, as shipowners adjust their focus due to operational limitations in Asia and Europe, where existing ships already cover major trade lanes.

“The container fleet’s capacity is expected to exceed 30 million TEU for the first time at the end of the third quarter and reach 30.5 million by the end of 2024. By the end of 2027, the current order book will add another 4.3 million TEU,” Rasmussen added. “As cargo volume growth is unlikely to match this expansion, we anticipate an increase in ship recycling to temper overall fleet growth. Additionally, if ships can eventually return to the Red Sea and Suez Canal, demand for ships will decrease.”

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